Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 0.051515 0.058953 0.067152 0.076868 0.088084 0.100639 0.115784
2024-12-15 0.040284 0.050428 0.062708 0.078715 0.099107 0.124314 0.157990
2024-12-22 0.033195 0.044142 0.058261 0.077902 0.104682 0.140144 0.191042
2024-12-29 0.029546 0.041277 0.057212 0.080602 0.114341 0.161664 0.233813
2025-01-05 0.025157 0.036616 0.052871 0.077830 0.115582 0.171179 0.260426
2025-01-12 0.022100 0.033361 0.049961 0.076498 0.118387 0.182856 0.291302
2025-01-19 0.019197 0.029928 0.046300 0.073427 0.117918 0.189157 0.314170
2025-01-26 0.018096 0.029113 0.046490 0.076314 0.127106 0.211676 0.366451
2025-02-02 0.017119 0.028359 0.046649 0.079092 0.136332 0.235224 0.423563
2025-02-09 0.016247 0.027664 0.046794 0.081799 0.145664 0.259943 0.486026
2025-02-16 0.014933 0.026066 0.045222 0.081278 0.149100 0.274417 0.531153
2025-02-23 0.013935 0.024911 0.044284 0.081759 0.154365 0.292772 0.586157
2025-03-02 0.012888 0.023589 0.042960 0.081460 0.158283 0.309365 0.640764
2025-03-09 0.012273 0.023004 0.042935 0.083653 0.167380 0.337372 0.723574
2025-03-16 0.011340 0.021720 0.041450 0.082782 0.170133 0.352733 0.781191
2025-03-23 0.010933 0.021410 0.041809 0.085661 0.181009 0.386462 0.885054
2025-03-30 0.009936 0.019830 0.039490 0.082705 0.178984 0.391935 0.923990
2025-04-06 0.009197 0.018702 0.037976 0.081284 0.180142 0.404573 0.981889
2025-04-13 0.008354 0.017283 0.035725 0.078010 0.176714 0.406246 1.012830
2025-04-20 0.008156 0.017205 0.036295 0.081089 0.188358 0.444795 1.143883
2025-04-27 0.007955 0.017100 0.036793 0.084051 0.200081 0.485051 1.285987
2025-05-04 0.007755 0.016979 0.037240 0.086938 0.211969 0.527275 1.440447
2025-05-11 0.007310 0.016267 0.036294 0.086382 0.215164 0.547701 1.537034